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The Jewish People in 2126: Demography, identity and the future of a global minority
Author(s): DellaPergola, Sergio
Date: 2026
Topics: Demography, Jewish Future, Main Topic: Demography and Migration
Abstract: In this policy paper: Renowned demographer and President of JPR’s European Jewish Demography Unit Professor Sergio DellaPergola explores possible futures for the Jewish People over the next century, not by making precise predictions, but by identifying the core structural forces that have shaped Jewish history and will continue to do so. It highlights the enduring complexity of Jewish identity and existence, examining not only whether the Jewish People will endure but also in what form. Some of the key findings and arguments in this policy paper: Three enduring questions will shape the Jewish future: What defines Jewish identity? How is it transmitted? How do Jews relate to non-Jews as a minority? How does the Jewish collective organise and defend its shared interests? Jewish existence will continue to rest on three interconnected pillars: Israel – a sovereign Jewish state, demographically strong but politically challenged; Diaspora – diverse minority communities, often influential but structurally vulnerable; the Israel–Diaspora relationship – a critical but fragile axis. Three key dynamics affect Jewish demographics: Ageing and low fertility in most Diaspora communities; higher fertility in Israel, especially among more religious groups; and potential long-term transformation of the Jewish population’s internal composition. Future migration patterns will depend heavily on political stability, economic conditions and levels of security and antisemitism. Assimilation and identity erosion remain major challenges, while new forms of ‘joining’ Judaism may emerge. Jews will continue to represent a tiny global minority, and Jewish life will continue to be shaped by external perceptions and pressures. At the same time, antisemitism is expected to persist in evolving forms. Israel is likely to become home to the majority of the world’s Jews within decades. This shift will redefine the meaning of Jewish peoplehood, its cultural and political priorities and the power dynamics within global Jewry. Rapid growth of more religious populations (particularly Haredim) may reshape economic structures, political systems and social cohesion. Leadership capacity must include three key requirements: the ability to unite diverse segments of the Jewish People, a realistic assessment of challenges and opportunities, and the development of new or improved shared decision-making frameworks.
Assessing the Current Demography and Future Shape of a Minority Sub-Population: the Case of Liverpool UK Jewry
Author(s): Sapiro, Philip
Date: 2024
Topics: Demography, Jewish Community, Jewish Organisations, Jewish Future, Main Topic: Demography and Migration, Policy, Surveys, Censuses
Abstract: The paper sets out how a small religion-based sub-population based in a UK city, Liverpool Jewry, underpinned its planning for the future in the light of its reducing size and the consequent strain on the community’s infrastructure and resources. This was achieved by carrying out a voluntary census to provide information on the community’s current size (about 1800 individuals living in 900 households) and its age profile, household types and other characteristics. The census questions were designed to provide data that allowed future population projections to be developed. The low number of births in the community necessitated the devising of a novel approach to the fertility assessment, though mortality rates were derived in a traditional way. In particular, the various elements of migration were investigated via historical information and stated preference responses. The analysis facilitated the estimation of levels of future demand for educational, youth, cultural, religious, welfare and burial services, and the community’s ability to continue to provide those services. Whilst the subject of this paper is the Jewish community in the city of Liverpool, the approach set out here could be adopted by other minority groups, whether shrinking, growing or stable, in other localities and in other countries.
Planning for the future: European Jewry after the Cold War
Author(s): Gruber, Ruth Ellen
Date: 1995
Topics: Main Topic: Other, Post-1989, Jewish Revival, Jewish Future
The Future of the German-Jewish Past: Memory and the Question of Antisemitism
Editor(s): Reuveni, Gideon; Franklin, Diana
Date: 2020
Topics: Main Topic: Other, Assimilation, Antisemitism, Holocaust Memorials, Holocaust Education, Holocaust, Immigration, Memory, Jewish Future, Jewish Revival
Abstract: Germany’s acceptance of its direct responsibility for the Holocaust has strengthened its relationship with Israel and has led to a deep commitment to combat antisemitism and rebuild Jewish life in Germany. As we draw close to a time when there will be no more firsthand experience of the horrors of the Holocaust, there is great concern about what will happen when German responsibility turns into history. Will the present taboo against open antisemitism be lifted as collective memory fades? There are alarming signs of the rise of the far right, which includes blatantly antisemitic elements, already visible in public discourse. But it is mainly the radicalization of the otherwise moderate Muslim population of Germany and the entry of almost a million refugees since 2015 from Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan that appears to make German society less tolerant and somewhat less inhibited about articulating xenophobic attitudes. The evidence is unmistakable—overt antisemitism is dramatically increasing once more.

The Future of the German-Jewish Past deals with the formidable challenges created by these developments. It is conceptualized to offer a variety of perspectives and views on the question of the future of the German-Jewish past. The volume addresses topics such as antisemitism, Holocaust memory, historiography, and political issues relating to the future relationship between Jews, Israel, and Germany. While the central focus of this volume is Germany, the implications go beyond the German-Jewish experience and relate to some of the broader challenges facing modern societies today.
The Jewish Question in Europe Redux
Author(s): Rettig, Edward
Date: 2014
Topics: Antisemitism, Antisemitism: Muslim, Antisemitism: Left-Wing, Anti-Zionism, Main Topic: Antisemitism, Jewish Identity, Jewish Future
Abstract: This paper examines European society in relation to the Jews who lived there. Following the history of antisemitic ideas in Europe, it deals with the contradictory currents in European-Jewish relations. In light of current unfortunate events it poses the question whether a European madness reflected in antisemitism might be developing or is more likely to be contained.
The Cultural Dimension of Jewish European Identity
Author(s): Maimon, Dov
Date: 2013
Topics: Jewish Identity, Jewish Culture, Jewish Revival, Main Topic: Culture and Heritage, Jewish Future
European Jewry – Signals and Noise: Is there a point of negative inflection?
Author(s): Maimon, Dov
Date: 2013
Topics: Antisemitism, Main Topic: Demography and Migration, Aliyah, Emigration, Jewish Future
Abstract: Recent negative economic, political, and anti-Semitic developments in Europe, question the future thriving of Jewish life on the old continent.

According to a large-scale survey on Jewish people’s experiences and perceptions of anti-Semitism commissioned by the EU's Fundamental Rights Agency (FRA), in three of the nine states surveyed (namely Belgium, France and Hungary), between 40-50% of respondents said they had considered emigrating from their country of residence because they did not feel safe there. Moreover, some 200-300 Jewish families of French origin have recently immigrated to Montreal, and at least 120 families to London.

Beyond the Aliyah of 50,000 French Jews since 1990 (10% of French Jewry), new-immigrant associations claim there are some 20-30,000 additional French Jews who live part of the year in Israel but for convenience – and in order to avoid Israeli bureaucracy – prefer not to take Israeli citizenship.

Despite the trends outlined above, benefiting from relatively high social, professional, and economic personal status, most European Jews will in all likelihood remain in Europe.
The Jews of France in 2030
Author(s): Maimon, Dov
Date: 2011
Topics: Jewish Future, Main Topic: Other
Abstract: Speech made, originally in French, at 2011 CRIF National Convention
The Slow Disappearance of Turkey's Jewish Community
Author(s): Bali, Rifat
Date: 2011
Topics: Aliyah, Anti-Zionism, Antisemitism, Community Relations, Diaspora, Immigration, International Relations, Jewish - Muslim Relations, Migration, Main Topic: Identity and Community, Jewish Future
Abstract: Turkey's Jewish community is one of the few remaining Diaspora Jewish communities in a country with a Muslim majority. Despite its apparent dynamism, its long-term viability is doubtful. The community does not have any influence or play any role worth mentioning in Turkey's cultural, political, or intellectual life. Furthermore, in recent years the entire community has become the target of much resentment and hostile rhetoric from the country's Islamist and ultranationalist sectors. For the situation to change, Turkish society would have to veer away from the current insular nationalist and Islamist atmosphere and move in a more liberal, democratic, multicultural direction. Turkey could then both come to grips with the darker aspects of its past and work for a different and better future. At present, the indications that such a transition might occur are mixed at best.
Is There a Future for Jews in Switzerland?
Author(s): Erlanger, Simon
Date: 2007
Topics: Jewish Community, Antisemitism, Jewish Future, Assimilation, Emigration, Jewish Continuity, Main Topic: Other
Abstract: Swiss Jewry seems to be set for steady decline. There are today some eighteen thousand Jews in Switzerland-the same number as in 1900, whereas the general population has doubled since then. Assimilation and emigration, mainly to Israel, have reduced the Jewish population.
Jewish numbers were never high in Switzerland although many Jewish communities existed there in the Middle Ages. A pattern began in 1348 when many cities in the territories of what was to become the Swiss Confederacy murdered their Jews and expelled the survivors.
Jews were denied entry and residence for many centuries. By the seventeenth century a small Jewish population had been established in Swiss-conquered areas. The French occupation of 1798 bolstered the Jewish presence. Discrimination, however, continued until outside pressure led to emancipation in 1868-1874.
After World War I Jewish immigration was made impossible, culminating in the anti-Jewish refugee policy during World War II. In the postwar period Swiss Jews experienced a new acceptance and prosperity despite demographic weakness. More recently a largely homemade anti-Semitism has arisen that gained momentum with the restitution debate of the 1990s.
The Third Pillar? Toward a European Jewish Identity
Author(s): Pinto, Diana
Date: 1999
Topics: Jewish Revival, Jewish Future, Jewish Identity, Main Topic: Identity and Community
Abstract: [Abstract from: https://www.jstor.org/stable/41287484?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents]

Can Jews in Europe today come together to constitute a significant third pole of world Jewry alongside Israel and America? Can a new European Jewish identity emerge, one which would be enriching and useful to Jews and non-Jews in Europe and around the world? The author's response is yes, qualified by the proviso that identities take shape only if there are people who incarnate them, in this case Jews who feel equally at home in their Jewish and European roots. She feels that only now in the context of a democratic (or aspiring democratic) and reunited pan-European continent do the premises for such a new Jewish identity exist. Two political and cultural transformations made this possible: the transcendence of the ideological divisions based on Communism and the slow coming to terms with the Holocaust on the part of Europe s different countries. The road pointing to such a future European Jewish identity, however, is still fraught with controversy.
European Jews at the Crossroads
Date: 2017
Topics: Jewish Future, Strategic Planning, Globalisation, Israel-Diaspora Relations, Diaspora, Antisemitism, Main Topic: Other, Demography, Jewish Identity, Jewish Community, Jewish Status, Jewish Education, Religious Observance and Practice
Abstract: In February 2016, the 2nd Matanel Think Tank met in Pomezia, Italy to discuss the future of European Jewry. The attendees, professional or laypersons, serve their communities in the areas of research, planning, or rabbinical and educational guidance. Representing more than ten European countries, and diverse cultural backgrounds and religious denominations, they express a variety of points of view regarding the issues on the agenda of the Jewish people. This Matanel Paper makes available to the vast public a summary of the debates and the conclusions.

Contents:

Foreword - Joëlle Aflalo and Gad Boukobza
Program
Introduction - Eliahu Birnbaum
Summary of the Deliberations - Benjamin Myers
Jews in Europe - Ami Bouganim
Think Tank Participants
World and Regional Jewish Population Projections - Russian Republic, 1994-2019 (Interim Report)
Author(s): DellaPergola, Sergio; Tolts, Mark; Rebhun, Uzi
Date: 1996
Topics: Demography, Jewish Future, Main Topic: Demography and Migration
Abstract:

This report presents first results of a new series of demographic projections of the Jewish population in the Russian Republic, the largest component of the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The projection extends over a period of 25 years, between the mid-1990s and approaching the year 2020, and portrays different scenarios reflecting the most likely developments to be expected in conformity with a variety of assumptions.
Jewish life in Europe: Impending catastrophe or imminent renaissance?
Author(s): Boyd, Jonathan
Date: 2013
Topics: Antisemitism, Jewish Revival, Demography, Jewish Future, Main Topic: Other
Abstract: There are three major hypotheses about the future of Jewish life in Europe. The first argues that rising levels of antisemitism, increased criticism of Israel and changing demographics all point in the same direction: that Europe is rapidly becoming an unsafe place for Jews. The second argues that greater levels of diversity and heterogeneity in European societies are creating a more open environment for Jewish life to thrive, and the result can be seen in innovative and creative Jewish initiatives taking off all over the continent. The third argues that the demography of Jews in Europe, with higher death rates than birth rates the norm, points to a slow but inevitable decline of Jewish life.

Which one of these hypotheses is right? This paper examines each of them in turn, but ultimately concludes that there is insufficient evidence to make a fully accurate assessment. All have an evidence base to support them, but none is robust enough to completely outweigh the others.

In particular, it focuses on the new data gathered by JPR for the European Union Agency for Fundamental Rights (FRA), which sheds fresh light on the question of the future of Jewish life in Europe, and provides researchers with what is probably the largest dataset on European Jews ever to be produced.
The economic downturn & the future of Jewish communities
Author(s): Sarna, Jonathan D.
Date: 2009
Topics: Economy, Finance, Aliyah, Demography, Jewish Organisations, Fundraising and Philanthropy, Main Topic: Identity and Community, Jewish Future
Abstract: In the aftermath of the economic crisis that swept across the world in 2008, Professor Jonathan Sarna, Professor of American Jewish History at Brandeis University and Chief Historian of the new National Museum of American Jewish History, gave JPR’s 2009 Morris and Manja Leigh Memorial lecture exploring how similar economic crises have affected Jewish life in the past.

Based on historical precedent, he argued that we should expect to see five trends: (1) Jewish organisations being merged into non-Jewish organisations; (2) new found efforts to re-engage small donors; (3) calls for higher standards of ethics and greater transparency in Jewish philanthropy; (4) a new focus on sweat equity; and (5) demographic decline and greater aliyah to Israel as unemployment rises.

Sarna further argued that “Once the economic downturn is behind us, the goal of formulating a new and compelling mission for our Jewish community needs to be high on our collective agenda.”
Jews of the Former Soviet Union: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow
Author(s): Avineri, Shlomo; Chlenov, Michael; Gitelman, Zvi
Date: 1997
Topics: Jewish Revival, Jewish Future, Policy, Jewish Status, Boundaries, Main Topic: Identity and Community
Abstract: Report based on a conference held in June-July 1996 in St Petersburg on the future of the Jewish community in the FSU.
European Jewry in 2030
Author(s): Maimon, Dov
Date: 2010
Topics: Jewish Future, Economy, Jewish Peoplehood, Main Topic: Other
Abstract: This background paper is based on the methodology and categories described extensively in JPPI’s report 2030: Alternative Futures for the Jewish People. Beyond the external and internal drivers identified as critical for the Jewish people at the global level, the future thriving or decline of European Jewries will depend upon some specific drivers linked to the geopolitical, economic and cultural environment of the region.