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Author(s): Sapiro, Philip
Date: 2016
Abstract: The use of geodemographic analysis has a long history, arguably stretching back to Charles Booth's Descriptive Map of London's Poverty, produced in 1886 and the published classification of areas has invariably been based on all residents. The work described in this paper, however, is novel in the use of geodemographic analysis to focus on a single minority group within a national census. This paper describes the development of a methodology which allows geodemographic analysis to be applied to unevenly distributed minority sub-populations, overcoming two particular issues: finding a suitable geographic base to ensure data reliability; and developing a methodology to avoid known weaknesses in certain clustering techniques, specifically distortion caused by outlier cases and generation of sub-optimal local minimum solutions. The approach, which includes a visual element to final classification selection, has then been applied to establish the degree to which the Jewish population in an area is similar in character to, or differs from, Jews living in other areas of England and Wales, using data from the 2011 census. That group has been selected because of the maturity of its presence in Britain — study of this group may point the way for examination of other, more recently arrived, sub-populations. Previous studies have generally assumed homogeneity amongst ‘mainstream’ Jews and have not considered spatial variation, separating out only strictly orthodox enclaves. This paper demonstrates that there are indeed distinct socio-economic and demographic differences between Jewish groups in different areas, not fully attributable to the underlying mainstream social geography, whilst also identifying a strong degree of spatial clustering; it also establishes the practicality of applying geodemographic analysis to minority groups.
Author(s): Sapiro, Philip
Date: 2016
Author(s): Sapiro, Philip
Date: 2016
Abstract: A novel approach is described to developing population projections for minority groups for whom information used in traditional approaches is not directly available. Geodemographic assessment is a powerful tool for simplifying and interpreting complex patterns; but fixed classifications have rarely been used to compare and contrast population characteristics found in consecutive decennial censuses and establish trends for the future. This paper describes an innovative projection methodology, using an existing geodemographic classification and standard census outputs, that addresses and overcomes three challenges: the application of a geodemographic classification to a minority group – the Jewish residents of England and Wales – across multiple points in time; analysis of changes in that population between the 2001 and 2011 censuses, by geodemographic class; and the development of a projection based on these recent observed trends. The approach adopted specifically allows for temporal changes in the influence of population characteristics. The balance between the impact of births, deaths and migration on area / class population over time is determined and, after consideration of future fertility and mortality levels, used to develop class-by-class population projections for Anglo-Jewry and an overall projection for 2021 and 2031. The analysis indicates that there will be material differences between the demographic futures of the areas in which the various classes are found, and predicts a reversal in the numerical decline of the Jewish population that has prevailed over the last half century. As a result, the projections raise significant policy implications; additionally, the approach could be applied to other groups and other places.